The Thomas Rhett Career Quandary
Thomas Rhett was Nashville's biggest star just a few years ago. What changed?
In late 2017, Netflix was looking for a country star to feature in their flyover state comedy, The Ranch. Featuring Ashton Kutcher starring as a washed up football player who came home to the family farm, The Ranch was squarely aimed at Hollywood’s perception of rural audiences. Farmers, beer, crops needing rain, and country music. Lots of country music. (Well, aside from the trailer. Tom Petty is basically country nowadays anyhow).
A plot point that occurred near the end of the second season involved the haphazard manner wherein Colt ( Ashton Kutcher’s character) decides to try and propose to his girlfriend Abby (played by Elisha Cuthbert). He attempts to rope in Abby’s favorite country star to aid in a surprise proposal. As would be expected in a comedy, it doesn’t go well. #NoSpoilers.
For this scene to land with the proper oomph, no B-list act would suffice. Netflix needed to go big time. Who was chosen as the avatar of country music stardom? Thomas Rhett.
In 2017, Rhett was on a hot streak as much as anyone else in modern country music history. His crossover smash Die A Happy Man had a firm grip on every wedding south of the Mason Dixon line and plenty of nuptials up north as well. All three singles released in that year went number one at radio, and had multi-platinum sales. His album that year, Life Changes, topped the all-genre Billboard 200. Streaming was not as widespread at that point, but Rhett was easily in the topmost tier among country streaming. But his success wasn’t just in traditional music metrics. Thomas Rhett had it. He was an A-list country act with cultural buzz (and an even more famous wife). Tapping him for the star slot in The Ranch was the obvious move.
Let's pause things right here and divert on a brief, but relevant tangent. Country has a sort of unique relationship with authenticity. (Hip hop struggles with a similar dynamic, and rock has had spurts of similar feelings). The roots of the authenticity conversation are tangled up and best saved for a different time. Suffice it to say that due to this requirement, various aspects of an artist's persona need to align with audiences' preconceived notions of what defines a country star. For example, see how Jake Owen ups his drawl when singing to align more with audience expectations of sound. Randy Travis asked to pull his songs from pop charts because he wasn't a pop singer. And yes, everyone must wear boots.
Well, everyone except for Thomas Rhett. In the midst of his most pop crossover period thus far, Rhett started wearing sneakers on stage, in part to help out his dancing, but also to demonstrate his millennial fashion sensibility. “I was going to break my ankles dancing in [boots],” he told Billboard.
It was more than just a practical move. It was, as he explained in the interview, something personal to him even if it was unorthodox for a country singer.
“What do your sneakers say about you?”
“Wearing wild colors brings out my personality. The fresher colors represent my fashion sense and my musical style, both of which are somewhat all over the place. Yes, I’m a country music singer, but I grew up listening to hip-hop, pop, jazz, R&B, gospel and folk, too.”
This wasn't a big deal per se. His pop stardom aims were very clear. Sneakerhead culture, Bruno Mars covers, and full on pop "country" was his brand. In the late 2010s, that kind of cosmopolitan millennial pop country clicked with audiences. Some part small scale bro backlash, some part streaming induced easing of genre boundaries led to a winning formula that surpassed the limits of genre audiences. The wild success allowed for pushing beyond the circumscribed sociocultural expectations. By all indications, Rhett could coif his hair, carefully trim his beard, program some drum loops and ease into the next five to ten years of A-List country stardom. And yes, he could wear sneakers.
See, trends in Nashville work pretty simply. It's about a ten year lifecycle. Maybe twelve years. The first stage is the underground beginnings. The upcoming trend is led by some younger artists, gaining buzz until the tipping point where Nashville turns. Then for about five years, this new sound is dominant. At that point, oversaturation occurs and a new trend starts to brew for about two to three years. The old trend wanes, slowly ceding ground to the new trend until a new tipping point occurs. An artist who hops on board a trend early enough can pretty much coast alongside the trend and guarantee success.
Some examples of this calculus in action.
"90's Country"
1986- New traditionalists start impacting. Travis, Skaggs, Strait, Earle. (Not necessarily the debut date, but it's when their traditional energy slowly started to impact genre conventions.)
1989- The "class of '89" takes traditional country to the next level.
1993- Shania Twain debuts, but doesn't draw much traction. Tradco is still in the drivers seat. Compared to just two years later....
1995- Hat act oversupply + Shania Twain hits the scene. The Neotraditional '90s are firmly falling away.
1997- Most of the bigger early 90s acts are cashing out with greatest hits albums. Pop forward acts like Faith Hill, Lonestar and others are rising.
Let’s look at a recent example.
"Bro Country"
2008- Jason Aldeans's She's Country released as a single. Justin Moore's debut album contains many bro signifiers. Honestly, one can probably go back to 2007 with Aldeans's Johnny Cash as an early bro song.
2010- My Kind Of Party kicks off Bro. FGL soon to follow.
2014- Right around the bro's peak, in October 2014, Sam Hunt released Montevallo. The first, and biggest shot across bro's bow.
2015- Die A Happy Man and Crash and Burn show that Montevallo-esque pop country is no fluke.
2017- Meant To Be, Body Like a Backroad. Game. Set. Match.
You would have expected that the pop country era that grew out of bro starting around 2015 would have lasting power until the 2025-2027 area. Rhett was well suited to capitalize on it. Clearly Netflix expected it.
But similar to how in Foundation, The Mule ruined the carefully anticipated future of Hari Selden, something changed. A pandemic happened.
If one listened to country radio during the pandemic would not have noticed all that much of a difference. Although perhaps there was a doubling down of escapist content, (as suggested by astute analysis by the now-retired Kyle from Kyle's Korner,) generally speaking, broad changes didn’t occur on the commercial side. Country radio in 2020 and 2021 was still firmly set to the pop country sounds of 2019. But change was creeping on the horizon. The pandemic may not have changed things at the top level, but in the underground- ie the creative side- it was a different story.
Ever since the turn of the century decline in physical media sales, the music business has been increasingly reliant on live revenue for their money making. The pandemic snapped that shut. Looking to keep the connection with audiences around, and trying to keep the money spigot flowing, country artists turned to social media like never before. They soon found that audiences enjoyed candid looks into songwriting and acoustic demos. (The independent scene was keenly aware of this, see Colter Wall.) But Nashville needed Covid to teach them.
Anticipatory suggestions from media commentators suggested that a songwriting focused style with more acoustic and raw "country" style presentation was bound to come out from this period. Prescient observations pointed to underlying trends growing in the independent scene that could be a harbinger of things to come.
Rhett tried to head this off by executing an anticipatory pivot away from synthetic pop country on his early 2021 album; Country Again (Side A). Country Again was marketed as a pandemic inspired return to his roots album. Songs featured acoustic guitar aplenty and even harmonica! Themes discussed within aimed squarely towards a generally nostalgic, family focused, country identitarian persona. It was a thoughtful gamble.
It didn't work. Sales were slow out of the gate. Aside from the poppier lead off single, What's Your Country Song, the singles didn't land with audiences the way Rhett's older pop country stuff did. In retrospect, the underlying fault did not lie with the album. Instead, it was with the time period. The projected genre leanings towards organic and traditional sounds did arrive, but not in 2021. That year was still led primarily by pop country. The last dregs of pre-pandemic singles made the round, Morgan Wallen leaped into the stratosphere, and the year ended off with Fancy Like topping the charts. Nashville was soon to diversify (at least sonically), but 2021 was not the year. There was not only no real need to pivot, but the environment was working against the potential success of the record.
The team over at Big Machine seemingly panicked over Country Again flopping because the planned Side B follow up never materialized. Seven months after Country Again dropped, Rhett and his team decided to push a new single to radio. Instead of a third single off Country Again, a brand new, pop-inflected fall anthem entitled Slow Down Summer was pushed. A full on reversion to the perceived safety of pop country was coming down the pipe. And in April of 2022, barely a year after his return to roots period started, it was over.
The 2022 album, Where We Started, was a pop country mishmash. The overwhelming feeling defining the album was one of desperation. The production oscillated between dated pop country styling and attempts to drive Thomas Rhett into new directions. Katy Perry was enlisted to bring pop credibility to the title track, only to be wasted on a generic rnb pop country track. The momentum never returned. Where We Started charted lower than Country Again.
I'm not going to try and defend Where We Started as an artistic masterpiece. Far from it. It is perhaps the worst full length record in Rhett's already middling output. But even so, its commercial failures are not solely attributable to failures of quality control. Yet again, the timing of release was a crucial and underappreciated factor that tanked things for Thomas Rhett and Co. 2022 was a year significantly more amenable to traditional styling- as evinced by the breakout mainstream successes of Zach Bryan, Cody Johnson and others. Change can occur rapidly. Where We Started didn't mesh well with the popular trends. Yet again, Rhett was out of sync.
This isn't meant as some handwaving of the continuing success of some pop country. Obviously, 2022 had its fair share of pop heavy hits. You Proof was setting records all year long. However, even that dreadful piece of country trap crossover is indicative. Wallen, similar to an adept politician, manages to consistently strike the mid-point of the Overton window. And wouldn't you know it, the other singles he pushed throughout the year all leaned into traditional sounds.
This subtle, but very real change in the mainstream country music environment meant that simply swapping the release of Where We Started and Country Again would have aligned better with the trends du jour and presumably would have led to better commercial results. Instead, what occurred was a too-soon pivot before the environment fully adjusted, and then a panicked reversion precisely when the sands shifted. Obviously, this is only apparent to us in hindsight, but it does explain a great deal about the two consecutive mediocre album rollouts that has now led to the shrinking star of Thomas Rhett.
These mismatched album eras had serious consequences that no amount of radio number ones can paper over. During this whole period, Rhett's streaming numbers stayed stable. That may not sound too bad, but the pandemic and post pandemic years oversaw a huge jump in country streaming numbers. If ten million monthly listeners was rarified territory prior to the pandemic, by 2022 it was pretty passe. The heavy hitters of the genre (Morgan Wallen, Luke Combs, Chris Stapleton and others) all surpassed twenty million and climbing. Soon, Wallen and Zach Bryan would redefine what streaming success looked like for a country star. By treading water during this period, Rhett was losing ground. If The Ranch was looking for the face of country music stardom in 2022, Thomas Rhett would not have been it.
The clinching piece of evidence for this weak album stretch tanking Rhett's cultural capital accumulated throughout that late twenty-teens period was the announcement that Thomas Rhett would be partnering with Morgan Wallen for a single. This should have been a pop culture monster. Obviously Wallen has been on an incredible commercial streak. Pairing the biggest star of the 2020s with Thomas Rhett should've created a monstrous smash. Instead, the result was a generic country radio number one that barely cracked the top 60 on Billboard. Recurrent airplay is fine, but nothing that stands out. Certainly nothing compared to what should have been expected. Heck, it wasn't that long ago that Rhett was the one bringing smaller artists under his dueting wings and bringing them greater visibility (Kelsea Ballerini, Jon Pardi etc....). Now he needs Morgan Wallen? Clearly, things changed.
A few weeks ago, a new Thomas Rhett album dropped. It continued the sales dip that has characterized his trajectory post- pandemic. Artistically, it is an updated pop country sonic palette. I found it pretty forgettable, but the lead off single seems to be getting traction.
And yeah, the fact that the album cover prominently features cowboy boots, and there is a song on the record entitled "Boots" is both funny and indicative. Thomas Rhett can no longer afford to push the boundaries like he once did. That applies equally to his sonic output as it does to his cultural persona. Sneakerhead Thomas Rhett is no more. Long live Country boy Thomas Rhett (now with 25% more trap beats!).
Thanks for reading! This idea has been in rough draft form for literally months now. Unusually, I wrote and discarded two full rough drafts of this piece. Each attempt at writing took an entirely different angle on Thomas Rhett’s career. In the end, I think the specific focus this piece took was the best for bringing out the ideas I had been chewing on. Certainly, those other drafts contain nuggets and perspectives that didn't make the cut here. Sometimes not all that can be said ought to be said.
Hope you enjoyed! Please feel free to reach out with any feedback, either in the comment section or via email (today I heard blog at Gmail dot com)
-Joe